We test for heterogeneity in the effects of the COVID-19 recession on young workers by estimating month-by-month effects of the pandemic on labor market outcomes among workers aged 15-19 and aged 20-24. We use CPS data from January 2016 to June 2021, limiting the sample to childless individuals...

Using the recession recovery point equal to the month when private payrolls first exceeded their previous peak level, this paper argues that it was the negative secular trend in manufacturing jobs that was the most important determinant of the length and depth of the last three...

This paper proposes a new way of displaying and analyzing macroeconomic time series to form recession forecasts. The proposed data displays contain the last three years of each expansion. These allow observers to see for themselves what is different about the last year before recession. Based on...