This paper presents stochastic simulation results pertaining to the performance of nominal income targeting, here represented as a monetary policy rule that sets quarterly values of an interest rate instrument in response to deviations on existing studies of nominal income growth from a...

The new open-economy macroeconomics' seeks to provide an improved basis for monetary and exchange-rate policy through the construction of open-economy models that feature rational expectations, optimizing agents, and slowly adjusting prices of goods. This paper promotes an alternative approach...

This paper reports results of simulation exercises that explore several questions relating to the design of rules for monetary policy. Emphasis is given to issues raised by the concept of rule operationality, i.e., reliance on feasible instrument variables and information sets. Many of the...

Broadly defined, macroeconomic forecasting is alive and well. Nonstructural forecasting which is based largely on reduced-form correlations, has always been well and continues to" improve. Structural forecasting, which aligns itself with economic theory and hence rises and" falls with theory,...

We propose a measure of predictability based on the ratio of the expected loss of a short-run forecast to the expected loss of a long-run forecast. This predictability measure can be tailored to the forecast horizons of interest, and it allows for general loss functions, univariate or...

Motivated by recent developments in the bounded rationality and strategic complementarity literatures, we examine an intentionally simple and stylized aggregative economic model, when the assumptions of fully rational expectations and no strategic interactions are relaxed. We show that small...