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Forecasts in a Slightly Misspecified Finite Order VAR

Müller, Ulrich K. - 2011

We propose a Bayesian procedure for exploiting small, possibly long-lag linear predictability in the innovations of a finite order autoregression. We model the innovations as having a log-spectral density that is a continuous mean-zero Gaussian process of order 1/√T. This local embedding makes...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461943

Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis

Stock, James H. - 2005

This paper considers VAR models incorporating many time series that interact through a few dynamic factors. Several econometric issues are addressed including estimation of the number of dynamic factors and tests for the factor restrictions imposed on the VAR. Structural VAR identification based...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467213

Evidence on Structural Instability in Macroeconomic Time Series Relations

Stock, James H. - 1994

An experiment is performed to assess the prevalence of instability in univariate and bivariate macroeconomic time series relations and to ascertain whether various adaptive forecasting techniques successfully handle any such instability. Formal tests for instability and out-of-sample forecasts...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474068

Core Inflation and Trend Inflation

Stock, James H. - 2015

An important input to monetary policymaking is estimating the current level of inflation. This paper examines … empirically whether the measurement of trend inflation can be improved by using disaggregated data on sectoral inflation to … construct indexes akin to core inflation, but with time-varying distributed lags of weights, where the sectoral weight depends …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457385

Empirical Bayes Forecasts of One Time Series Using Many Predictors

Knox, Thomas - 2001

We consider both frequentist and empirical Bayes forecasts of a single time series using a linear model with T observations and K orthonormal predictors. The frequentist formulation considers estimators that are equivariant under permutations (reorderings) of the regressors. The empirical Bayes...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470584

Forecasting Aggregate Period Specific Birth Rates : The Time Series Properties of a Microdynamic Neoclassical Model of Fertility

Heckman, James J. - 1989

This article demonstrates the value of microdata for understanding the effect of wages on life cycle fertility dynamics. Conventional estimates of neoclassical economic fertility models obtained from linear aggregate time series regressions are widely criticized for being nonrobust when adjusted...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475910

A Probability Model of The Coincident Economic Indicators

Stock, James H. - 1988

The Index of Coincident Economic Indicators, currently compiled by the U.S. Department of Commerce, is designed to measure the state of overall economic activity. The index is constructed as a weighted average of four key macroeconomic time series, where the weights are obtained using rules that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476288

New Methods for Estimating Labor Supply Functions : A Survey

Heckman, James J. - 1982

This paper surveys new methods for estimatifg labor supply functions. A unified framework of analysis is presented. All recent models of labor supply are special cases of a general index function model developed for the analysis o dummy endogenous variables

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478253

Testing the Correlated Random Coefficient Model

Heckman, James J. - 2009

The recent literature on instrumental variables (IV) features models in which agents sort into treatment status on the basis of gains from treatment as well as on baseline-pretreatment levels. Components of the gains known to the agents and acted on by them may not be known by the observing...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463186

The Determinants of Participation in a Social Program : Evidence from a Prototypical Job Training Program

Heckman, James J. - 2003

This paper decomposes the participation process of a prototypical program into eligibility, awareness, application, acceptance and enrollment. With this decomposition, we determine the sources of unequal participation for different groups, and demonstrate that variables often have very different...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468880