Showing 1 - 10 of 14
density). We examine real-time forecast accuracy for key macroeconomic variables including output growth, inflation, and the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456064
This paper develops a vector autoregression (VAR) for time series which are observed at mixed frequencies - quarterly and monthly. The model is cast in state-space form and estimated with Bayesian methods under a Minnesota-style prior. We show how to evaluate the marginal data density to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458951
Policy analysis with potentially misspecified dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models faces two challenges: estimation of parameters that are relevant for policy trade-offs and treatment of estimated deviations from the cross-equation restrictions. This paper develops and explores...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465555
with a modest and protracted decline in inflation, following the rise in financial stress in 2008Q4. The model does so even … though inflation remains very dependent on the evolution of economic activity and of monetary policy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458609
This paper considers the problem of forecasting a collection of short time series using cross sectional information in panel data. We construct point predictors using Tweedie's formula for the posterior mean of heterogeneous coefficients under a correlated random effects distribution. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480753
for output growth and inflation from 1992 to 2011. We find strong evidence of time variation in the pool's weights …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458090
We use a dynamic panel Tobit model with heteroskedasticity to generate point, set, and density forecasts for a large cross-section of short time series of censored observations. Our fully Bayesian approach allows us to flexibly estimate the cross-sectional distribution of heterogeneous...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480513
DSGE models. U.S. output growth and the federal funds rate display nonlinear conditional mean dynamics, while inflation and … inflation and wage dynamics, thanks to the estimated downward wage/price rigidities, these do not spill over to output growth or …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458969
We examine Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) on substance use disorder (SUD) treatment utilization and financing. We couple administrative data on admissions to specialty SUD treatment and prescriptions for medications used to treat SUDs with a differences-in-differences...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455339
In this study we examine the impact of a value-based insurance design (V-BID) program implemented between 2010 and 2013 at a large public employer in the state of Oregon. The program substantially increased cost-sharing, specifically copayments and coinsurance, for several healthcare services...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455805