This paper develops a decision-theoretic approach to policy analysis. We argue that policy evaluation should be conducted on the basis of two factors: the policymaker's preferences, and the conditional distribution of the outcomes of interest given a policy and available information. From this...

We propose and evaluate a technique for instrumental variables estimation of linear models with conditional heteroskedasticity. The technique uses approximating parametric models for the projection of right hand side variables onto the instrument space, and for conditional heteroskedasticity and...

We propose and evaluate a technique for instrumental variables estimation of linear models with conditional heteroskedasticity. The technique uses approximating parametric models for the projection of right hand side variables onto the instrument space, and for conditional heteroskedasticity and...

We compare the out-of-sample forecasting performance of univariate homoskedastic, GARCH, autoregressive and nonparametric models for conditional variances, using five bilateral weekly exchange rates for the dollar, 1973-1989. For a one week horizon, GARCH models tend to make slightly more...