confidence shock. Lack-of-confidence shocks play a central role in generating jobless recoveries, for fundamental shocks, such as …

research on China. Second, we document, through various empirical methods, the robust findings about striking patterns of trend … offers a constructive framework for studying China's modern macroeconomy …

Can standard business-cycle methodology be applied to China? In this chapter, we address this question by examining the … macroeconomic time series and identifying dimensions in which China differs from economies (such as Canada and the U.S.) that are … typically the subject of business-cycle research. We show that naively applying the standard business-cycle tools to China is no …

confidence innovations. Once we control for their low-frequency effect, we find little statistically or economically significant …

firms invest and hire less. The higher uncertainty reduces agents' confidence and further discourages economic activity. We …