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unconditional cross-sectional moments of household consumption growth and the moments of the risk-free rate, equity premium, price …-dividend ratio, and aggregate dividend and consumption growth. The model-implied risk-free rate and price-dividend ratio are … procyclical while the market return has countercyclical mean and variance. Finally, household consumption risk explains the cross …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458555
and 2) The premium for holding equity, over a safe government bond, is large. The equity premium has two parts; a risk … savings rates and I use this model to account for a high term premium and a volatile stochastic discount factor. The fact the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458706
In this paper we show that measures of economic uncertainty (conditional volatility of consumption) predict and are predicted by valuation ratios at long horizons. Further we document that asset valuations drop as economic uncertainty rises that is, financial markets dislike economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469320
We propose a method to measure the welfare cost of economic fluctuations that does not require full specification of consumer preferences and instead uses asset prices. The method is based on the marginal cost of consumption fluctuations, the per unit benefit of a marginal reduction in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470758
shows that regimes of low interest rates and high asset valuations are characterized by lower equity market risk premia and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456107
Is the stock market boom a result of the baby boom? This paper develops an overlapping generations model in which a baby boom is modeled as a high realization of a random birth rate, and the price of capital is determined endogenously by a convex cost of adjustment. A baby boom increases...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469499
This paper measures the effects of the risk of war on nine U.S. financial variables using a heteroskedasticity …-based estimation technique. The results indicate that increases in the risk of war cause declines in Treasury yields and equity prices …, a widening of lower-grade corporate spreads, a fall in the dollar, and a rise in oil prices. This war risk factor …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469089
components of systematic and diversifiable risk. Focusing on two periods around the 1973 switch from fixed to floating exchange … increase in total volatility led to a significant increase in market risk (beta) for the multinational firms relative to the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473547
power for expected returns across a range of equity characteristic portfolios and non-equity asset classes, with risk price … estimates that are of the same sign and similar in magnitude. Positive exposure to capital share risk earns a positive risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457922
-systematic risk on the firm's choice of an optimal input mix. Consistent with earlier work in economics, this analysis demonstrates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477970