We study the relation between inflation and real activity over the business cycle. We employ a Trend-Cycle VAR model to … control for low-frequency movements in inflation, unemployment, and growth that are pervasive in the post-WWII period. We show … that cyclical fluctuations of inflation are related to cyclical movements in real activity and unemployment, in line with …

inflation in the 2020s. Economic slack is measured as firms' job vacancies over the number of unemployed workers. After showing …. Policy implications include the thesis that appropriate monetary policy can bring inflation down without a significant …

This paper studies the relationship between inflation, output, money and interest rates in the euro area, using data … power for future inflation. The real money gap contains more information about future inflation than the output gap and the … Eurosystem's money-growth indicator is an inferior indicator of future inflation …

public finances. We show that when the ECB misses its inflation target this has large heterogeneous fiscal consequences for … missing their inflation targets. They are also sizeable …

, Sweden, UK and US)--documenting different strategies and the substantive reduction in central bank balance sheets that has …

to higher inflation, particularly when uncertainty couples with policies redirecting time use towards housework (e …