fluctuations associated with these events are also discussed, as is their role in the recent surge of inflation, with a particular …

economic growth. This paper examines the roles of three other factors: primary budget surpluses, surprise inflation, and pegged … inflation and the pre-Accord peg. In this counterfactual, debt/GDP declines only to 74% in 1974, not 23% as in actual history …

We measure the heterogeneous welfare effects of the recent inflation surge across households in the Euro Area. A simple … framework illustrating the numerous channels of the transmission mechanism of surprise inflation to household welfare guides our …; (ii) this inflation episode resembles an age-dependent tax, with the elderly losing up to 20%, and roughly half of the 25 …

Post-covid inflation was predominantly driven by unexpectedly strong demand forces, not only in the United States, but … inflation near its 2-percent target---would have severely hampered an already anaemic recovery …

This paper provides new survey evidence on firms' inflation expectations in the euro area. Building on the ECB's Survey … on the Access to Finance of Enterprises (SAFE), we introduce consistent measurement of inflation expectations across … firms' inflation expectations and show that firms disagree about future inflation more than professional forecasters but …

public finances. We show that when the ECB misses its inflation target this has large heterogeneous fiscal consequences for … missing their inflation targets. They are also sizeable …

, all without any evidence of extra inflation. The results in this paper turn the conventional wisdom on its head. While the … over into extra inflation, leaving only 20 percent remaining for extra real GDP growth. Virtually 100 percent of the … nominal exchange rate depreciation passed through into higher import prices, and extra inflation would have been even more …

regularization penalties, and we use them in a substantive exploration of Eurozone inflation and real interest rate density forecasts …. All individual inflation forecasters (even the ex post best forecaster) are outperformed by our regularized mixtures. From …