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Forecasting Stock Market Returns : The Sum of the Parts is More than the Whole
Ferreira, Miguel A. - 2008
We propose forecasting separately the three components of stock market returns: dividend yield, earnings growth, and price-earnings ratio growth. We obtain out-of-sample R-square coefficients (relative to the historical mean) of nearly 1.6% with monthly data and 16.7% with yearly data using the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464077
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Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook : An Update
Campbell, John Y. - 2001
The use of price earnings ratios and dividend-price ratios as forecasting variables for the stock market is examined using aggregate annual US data 1871 to 2000 and aggregate quarterly data for twelve countries since 1970. Various simple efficient-markets models of financial markets imply that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470503
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Four Centuries of Return Predictability
Golez, Benjamin - 2014
/U.K. (1629-1812), U.K. (1813-1870) and U.S. (1871-2015). We show that dividend yields are stationary and consistently forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457852
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The Level and Persistence of Growth Rates
Chan, Louis K.C. - 2001
Expected long-term earnings growth rates are crucial inputs to valuation models and for cost of capital estimates. We analyze historical long-term growth rates across a broad cross-section of stocks using several operating performance indicators. We test whether growth persists, and whether it...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470442
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Noise in Expectations : Evidence from Analyst Forecasts
De Silva, Tim - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021
This paper quantifies the amount of noise and bias in analysts' forecast of corporate earnings at various horizons. We … next decompose the relative accuracy of these forecasts into three components: (i) noise, (ii) bias and (iii) analysts … both noise and bias are increase linearly. We then show most existing models lack a mechanism to account for these facts …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012585447
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Market Reactions to Tangible and Intangible Information
Daniel, Kent - 2003
We decompose stock returns into components attributable to tangible and intangible information. A firm's tangible return is the component of its return attributable to fundamental accounting-performance information, and its intangible return is the component which is orthogonal to this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468955
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Changing Times, Changing Values : A Historical Analysis of Sectors within the US Stock Market 1872-2013
Bunn, Oliver D. - 2014
We construct a price, dividend, and earnings series for the Industrials sector, the Utilities sector, and the Railroads sector from the beginning of the 1870s until the beginning of the year 2013 from primary sources. To infer about mispricings in the sector markets over more than a century, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458297
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Overconfident Investors, Predictable Returns, and Excessive Trading
Daniel, Kent - 2016
Individuals and asset managers trade aggressively, resulting in high volume in asset markets, even when such trading results in high risk and low net returns. Asset prices display patterns of predictability that are difficult to reconcile with rational expectations-based theories of price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456728
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A Multivariate Model of Strategic Asset Allocation
Campbell, John Y. - 2001
Much recent work has documented evidence for predictability of asset returns. We show how such predictability can affect the portfolio choices of long-lived investors who value wealth not for its own sake but for the consumption their wealth can support. We develop an approximate solution method...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470152
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Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility
Andersen, Torben G. - 2001
volatility forecast, coupled with a parametric lognormal-normal mixture distribution implied by the theoretically and empirically …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470566