distribution of earnings surprises, the market's response to surprises and forecast revisions, and in the predictability of non …

cross-sectional variation. On average, the bias increases in the forecast horizon, and analysts revise their expectations …. We show that analyst expectations are on average biased upwards, and that this bias exhibits substantial time-series and …

This paper quantifies the amount of noise and bias in analysts' forecast of corporate earnings at various horizons. We … next decompose the relative accuracy of these forecasts into three components: (i) noise, (ii) bias and (iii) analysts … both noise and bias are increase linearly. We then show most existing models lack a mechanism to account for these facts …

allows us to observe a long panel of managerial forecast errors for a sample of firms representative of the Italian economy …. We show that managerial forecast errors are <i>positively and significantly</i> autocorrelated. This persistence in … forecast error is consistent with managerial underreaction to new information. To quantify the economic significance of this …

We ask whether stock returns in France, Germany, Japan, the UK and the US are predictable by three instruments: the …

additional tests, some of which utilize data on adverse health events, suggests that the forecast biases are at least partly due …

no evidence that plan participants undo this affiliation bias through their investment choices. Finally, the subsequent …

handle the potential for non-response bias and identify non-response using an affinity measure -- the potential respondent …-response. In the model describing earnings, estimated using the identified (for non-response bias) selectivity adjustments …

In this paper we show that omitted variables and publication bias lead to severely biased estimates of the value of a … that the same issues plague the estimation of monetary trade-offs regarding safety in other contexts …