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We examine the effectiveness of forward guidance at the effective lower bound (ELB) in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. Survey evidence underscores the myopia of professional forecasters at the initial stages of the pandemic and the extraordinary dispersion of their recent forecasts....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481296
Using a large-scale survey of U.S. households during the Covid-19 pandemic, we study how new information about fiscal and monetary policy responses to the crisis affects households' expectations. We provide random subsets of participants in the Nielsen Homescan panel with different combinations...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481579
This case study compares the importance of prevailing market factors against that of COVID-19 dynamics and policy responses in explaining the evolution of Eurozone (EZ) sovereign spreads during the first half of 2020. Focusing on daily Eurozone CDS spreads, we adopt a multi-stage econometric...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481646
In the financial crisis and recession induced by the Covid-19 pandemic, many investment-grade firms became unable to borrow from securities markets. In response, the Fed not only reopened its commercial paper funding facility but also announced it would purchase newly issued and seasoned bonds...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482316
primarily to supply disruptions and sharp increases in the prices of food and energy; however, and in sharp contrast to the 1970 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544809
We answer the question posed by the title by specifying and estimating a simple dynamic model of prices, wages, and short-run and long-run inflation expectations. The estimated model allows us to analyze the direct and indirect effects of product-market and labor-market shocks on prices and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322804
Central banks across the globe introduced large-scale asset purchase programs to address the unprecedented circumstances experienced during the pandemic. Many of these programs were announced as open-ended to shock-and-awe market participants and restore confidence in financial markets. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014486207
This paper uses the onset of COVID-19 to examine how countries construct their policy packages in response to a severe negative shock. We use several new datasets to track the use of a large variety of policy tools: announced fiscal stimulus (both above- and below-the-line), monetary policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014287372
Commodity prices are back. This paper looks at connections between monetary policy, and agricultural and mineral commodities. We begin with the monetary influences on commodity prices, first for a large country such as the United States, then smaller countries. The claim is that low real...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465947
In recent years, large fluctuations in world food prices have renewed interest in the question of how monetary policy … to previous ones except that food plays a distinctive role in utility. A key novelty of our model is that the real … exchange rate and the terms of trade can move in opposite directions in response to food price shocks. This has several …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462094