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Where Have All the Workers Gone? Recalls, Retirements, and Reallocation in the COVID Recovery

Forsythe, Eliza; Kahn, Lisa B.; Lange, Fabian; Wiczer, … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

At the onset of the COVID pandemic, the U.S. economy suddenly and swiftly lost 20 million jobs. Over the next two years, the economy has been on the recovery path. We assess the labor market two years into the COVID crisis. We show that early employment dynamics were almost entirely driven by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362041

Bonus Question : Does Flexible Incentive Pay Dampen Unemployment Dynamics?

Gaur, Meghana; Grigsby, John R.; Hazell, Jonathon; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

We introduce dynamic incentive contracts into a model of unemployment dynamics and present three results. First, wage … cyclicality from incentives does not dampen unemployment dynamics: the response of unemployment to shocks is first … cyclicality from bargaining dampens unemployment dynamics through the standard mechanism. Third, our calibrated model suggests 46 …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014372479

The Job Ladder : Inflation vs. Reallocation

Moscarini, Giuseppe; Postel-Vinay, Fabien - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

, unemployment and inflation to aggregate shocks. The ratio between job-finding probabilities from job-to-job and from unemployment … the unemployment rate …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322853

Job Displacement and Job Mobility : The Role of Joblessness

Fallick, Bruce; Haltiwanger, John C.; McEntarfer, Erika; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021

Who is harmed by and who benefits from worker reallocation? We investigate the earnings consequences of changing jobs and find a wide dispersion in outcomes. This dispersion is driven not by whether the worker was displaced, but by the duration of joblessness between job spells. Job movers who...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012616634

Worker Beliefs About Outside Options

Jäger, Simon; Roth, Christopher; Roussille, Nina; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021

Workers wrongly anchor their beliefs about outside options on their current wage. In particular, low-paid workers underestimate wages elsewhere. We document this anchoring bias by eliciting workers' beliefs in a representative survey in Germany and comparing them to measures of actual outside...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012794650