We study the relation between inflation and real activity over the business cycle. We employ a Trend-Cycle VAR model to … control for low-frequency movements in inflation, unemployment, and growth that are pervasive in the post-WWII period. We show … that cyclical fluctuations of inflation are related to cyclical movements in real activity and unemployment, in line with …

inflation strongly and persistently, (ii) lead to statistically weak negative effects on activity, (iii) contributed to … having a stronger effect on inflation expectations. Quantitatively, increasing political pressure by half as much as Nixon …

Macro data suggests a convex relationship between inflation and economic slack, but identifying causality is … strongest in firms and industries with higher inflation, disappears in horizons beyond two years, and is also present in … response to cost shocks. We rationalize these findings in a menu cost model with positive trend inflation and decreasing …

inflation behaves as if prices are nearly fully sticky (flexible). Using (conventional) measures of inflation that understate …

This paper investigates forecasts of U.S. inflation at the 12-month horizon. The starting point is the conventional … unemployment rate Phillips curve, which is examined in a simulated out of sample forecasting framework. Inflation forecasts …

to the 2021-2023 inflation surge through the lens of several different empirical methodologies--event studies, vector … through a disinflationary channel in the Phillips curve while monetary and fiscal stimuli put positive pressure on inflation …

This paper analyzes the dramatic rise in U.S. inflation since 2020, which we decompose into a rise in core inflation as … measured by the weighted median inflation rate and deviations of headline inflation from core. We explain the rise in core with …-through into core from past shocks to headline inflation. The headline shocks themselves are explained largely by increases in …

This paper studies people's understanding of inflation--their perceived causes, consequences, trade-offs--and the … views align with established economic theories. Our key findings show that the major perceived causes of inflation include … negative consequences of inflation but the most noted one is the increased complexity and difficulty in household decision …

fluctuations associated with these events are also discussed, as is their role in the recent surge of inflation, with a particular …