We study the relation between inflation and real activity over the business cycle. We employ a Trend-Cycle VAR model to … control for low-frequency movements in inflation, unemployment, and growth that are pervasive in the post-WWII period. We show … that cyclical fluctuations of inflation are related to cyclical movements in real activity and unemployment, in line with …

inflation strongly and persistently, (ii) lead to statistically weak negative effects on activity, (iii) contributed to … having a stronger effect on inflation expectations. Quantitatively, increasing political pressure by half as much as Nixon …

inflation behaves as if prices are nearly fully sticky (flexible). Using (conventional) measures of inflation that understate …

Our current inflation stemmed from a fiscal shock. The Fed is slow to react. Why? Will the Fed's slow reaction spur … more inflation? I write a simple model that encompasses the Fed's mild projections and its slow reaction, and traditional … views that inflation will surge without swift rate rises. The key question is whether expectations are forward looking or …

This paper studies people's understanding of inflation--their perceived causes, consequences, trade-offs--and the … views align with established economic theories. Our key findings show that the major perceived causes of inflation include … negative consequences of inflation but the most noted one is the increased complexity and difficulty in household decision …

This paper analyzes the dramatic rise in U.S. inflation since 2020, which we decompose into a rise in core inflation as … measured by the weighted median inflation rate and deviations of headline inflation from core. We explain the rise in core with …-through into core from past shocks to headline inflation. The headline shocks themselves are explained largely by increases in …

fluctuations associated with these events are also discussed, as is their role in the recent surge of inflation, with a particular …

inflation expectations. We develop this measure using assumptions common in economic analysis of open economies. Using quarterly …

unemployment-inflation tradeoff since 1995 …