Showing 1 - 10 of 12
Many governments have engaged in policy experimentation in various forms to resolve uncertainty and facilitate learning. However, little is understood about the characteristics of policy experimentation, and how the structure of experimentation may affect policy learning and policy outcomes. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012660080
This paper presents a framework for how to incorporate prior sources of information into the design of a sequential experiment. These sources can include previous experiments, expert opinions, or the experimenter's own introspection. We formalize this problem using a multi-prior Bayesian...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012938725
This article examines the risks faced by China's real estate sector within its distinct hybrid economy, which combines market mechanisms with comprehensive state planning and government intervention. The real estate sector holds particular importance as land sale revenues are a crucial source of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014250136
In 2006, the federal government effectively uncapped student borrowing for graduate programs with the introduction of the Graduate PLUS loan program. Access to additional federal loans increased graduate students' borrowing and shifted the composition of their loans from private to federal debt....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014287392
The "voltage effect" is defined as the tendency for a program's efficacy to change when it is scaled up, which in most cases results in the absolute size of a program's treatment effects to diminish when the program is scaled. Understanding the scaling problem and taking steps to diminish...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013537744
Economists have studied the impact of numerous state laws, from welfare rules to voting ID requirements. Yet for all this policy evaluation, what do we know about policy diffusion--how these policies spread from state to state? We present a series of facts based on a data set of over 700 U.S....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334361
How should the government respond to automation? We study this question in a heterogeneous agent model that takes worker displacement seriously. We recognize that displaced workers face two frictions in practice: reallocation is slow and borrowing is limited. We first show that these frictions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334373
Using a new survey of European households, we study how exogenous variation in the macroeconomic uncertainty perceived by households affects their spending decisions. We use randomized information treatments that provide different types of information about the first and/or second moments of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012496179
By age 77 a plurality of women in wealthy Western societies are widows. Comparing older (aged 70+) married women to widows in the American Time Use Survey 2003-18 and linking the data to the Current Population Survey allow inferring the short- and longer-term effects of an arguably exogenous...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012533301
This paper investigates challenges of aging for long-term care. Our analysis proceeds in three steps. In the first step, we estimate the prospective care demand for 30 developed countries based on projected aging and disabilities among the elderly. In the second step, we outline challenges for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013191046