We study the relation between inflation and real activity over the business cycle. We employ a Trend-Cycle VAR model to … control for low-frequency movements in inflation, unemployment, and growth that are pervasive in the post-WWII period. We show … that cyclical fluctuations of inflation are related to cyclical movements in real activity and unemployment, in line with …

inflation strongly and persistently, (ii) lead to statistically weak negative effects on activity, (iii) contributed to … having a stronger effect on inflation expectations. Quantitatively, increasing political pressure by half as much as Nixon …

its slope coefficient in recent years, as well as a shrinking role of lagged price inflation in the determination of wage … inflation. We provide estimates of a conditional wage Phillips curve, based on a structural decomposition of wage, price and …

inflation behaves as if prices are nearly fully sticky (flexible). Using (conventional) measures of inflation that understate …

Treasury bill rate, housing starts, industrial production, inflation and their forecasts are trend stationary. The corporate …

This paper provides an explanation for the run-up of U.S. inflation in the 1960s and 1970s and the sharp disinflation … by low inflation. However, prolonged episodes of high inflation ending with rapid disinflations can occur when … policymakers underestimate both the natural rate of unemployment and the persistence of inflation in the Phillips curve. I estimate …

fluctuations associated with these events are also discussed, as is their role in the recent surge of inflation, with a particular …

unemployment-inflation tradeoff since 1995 …

inflation expectations. We develop this measure using assumptions common in economic analysis of open economies. Using quarterly …

in recent decades can be explained by the success that monetary policy has had in quelling inflation and anchoring … inflation expectations since the 1980s. We also review the experience of the 1960s, the last time inflation expectations became …