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We study the relation between inflation and real activity over the business cycle. We employ a Trend-Cycle VAR model to … control for low-frequency movements in inflation, unemployment, and growth that are pervasive in the post-WWII period. We show … that cyclical fluctuations of inflation are related to cyclical movements in real activity and unemployment, in line with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247995
inflation behaves as if prices are nearly fully sticky (flexible). Using (conventional) measures of inflation that understate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544805
We study how within-store price variation changes with inflation, and whether households exploit it to attenuate the … inflation burden. We use micro price data for food products sold by 91 large multi-channel retailers in ten countries between … discounts grew at a much lower average rate than regular prices, helping to mitigate the inflation burden. By contrast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576655
inflation expectations. We develop this measure using assumptions common in economic analysis of open economies. Using quarterly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471456
unemployment-inflation tradeoff since 1995 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470298
This note demonstrates that Bennett McCallum's recent critique of low frequency estimates of macro-economic relationships is of little empirical significance. It also demonstrates that readily available and frequently used techniques can be used to diagnose the problem McCallum raises. Finally,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477640
, according to the Johansen procedure, cointegration fails to hold the farther out the forecasts extend. At the one year ahead …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472881
In a model where a variable Y[sub t] is proportional to the present value, with constant discount rate, of expected future values of a variable y[sub t] the "spread" S[sub t]= Y[sub t] - [theta sub t] will be stationary for some [theta] whether or not y[sub t]must be differenced to induce...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477190
We investigate the behavior of the long-run U.S./U.K. real exchange rate from 1885 to 1995. Our long-run real exchange rate series is derived from an unobserved components model which divides the real exchange rate into permanent and transitory components. The transitory component is modeled as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473057
We consider impulse response inference in a locally misspecified stationary vector autoregression (VAR) model. The conventional local projection (LP) confidence interval has correct coverage even when the misspecification is so large that it can be detected with probability approaching 1. This...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544773