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Probabilistic Prediction for Binary Treatment Choice : with Focus on Personalized Medicine
Manski, Charles F. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021
This paper extends my research applying statistical decision theory to treatment choice with sample data, using maximum … in indirect ways, the former applying classical statistical theory and the latter measuring prediction accuracy in test … samples. Neither approach is satisfactory. Statistical decision theory provides a coherent, generally applicable methodology …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012660036
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Increasing the Demand for Workers with a Criminal Record
Cullen, Zoë B.; Dobbie, Will; Hoffman, Mitchell - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
State and local policies increasingly restrict employers' access to criminal records, but without addressing the underlying reasons that employers may conduct criminal background checks. Employers may thus still want to ask about a job applicant's criminal record later in the hiring process or...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013191042
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Active Labor Market Policy Evaluations : A Meta-Analysis
Card, David - 2010
This paper presents a meta-analysis of recent microeconometric evaluations of active labor market policies. Our sample contains 199 separate "program estimates" - estimates of the impact of a particular program on a specific subgroup of participants - drawn from 97 studies conducted between 1995...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462484
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Firm Responses to State Hiring Subsidies : Regression Discontinuity Evidence from a Tax Credit Formula
Hyman, Benjamin G.; Freedman, Matthew; Khanna, Shantanu; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
We examine firm responses to location-based hiring subsidies. We leverage institutional features of the California Competes Tax Credit (CCTC), a large-scale business incentive program that incorporates best practices from prior job creation policies. The CCTC award selection procedure combines...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013462712
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Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?
Chen, Yu-Chin - 2008
We show that "commodity currency" exchange rates have remarkably robust power in predicting global commodity prices, both in-sample and out-of-sample, and against a variety of alternative benchmarks. This result is of particular interest to policymakers, given the lack of deep forward markets in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464746
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Is Trade Good or Bad for the Environment? Sorting Out the Causality
Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 2002
evidence that trade has the detrimental effect on the environment that the race-to-the-bottom theory would lead one to expect …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469508
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Dealing with Imperfect Randomization : Inference for the HighScope Perry Preschool Program
Heckman, James J.; Pinto, Rodrigo; Shaikh, Azeem M. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
This paper considers the problem of making inferences about the effects of a program on multiple outcomes when the assignment of treatment status is imperfectly randomized. By imperfect randomization we mean that treatment status is reassigned after an initial randomization on the basis of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014447303
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Do Unemployment Insurance Benefits Improve Match Quality? Evidence from Recent U.S. Recessions
Farooq, Ammar - 2020
We present new evidence on the impact of more generous unemployment insurance (UI) on workers' ability to find jobs better suited to their skills. Using Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics data, we find the UI extensions introduced in the U.S. improved the quality of worker-job matches....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481429
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Behavioral and distributional effects of environmental policy
Carraro, Carlo (contributor);  … - 2001
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001481180
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The Economic Impacts of the US-China Trade War
Fajgelbaum, Pablo D.; Khandelwal, Amit - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021
In 2018, the US launched a trade war with China, an abrupt departure from its historical leadership in integrating global markets. By late 2019, the US had tariffed roughly $350 billion of Chinese imports, and China had retaliated on $100 billion US exports. Economists have used a diversity of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012629535