Using a new survey of European households, we study how exogenous variation in the macroeconomic uncertainty perceived by households affects their spending decisions. We use randomized information treatments that provide different types of information about the first and/or second moments of...

We present a general framework for Bayesian estimation and causality assessment in epidemiological models. The key to our approach is the use of sequential Monte Carlo methods to evaluate the likelihood of a generic epidemiological model. Once we have the likelihood, we specify priors and rely...

This paper assesses the prospects of a 2021 time bomb in SME failures triggered by the generous support policies enacted during the 2020 COVID-19 crisis. Policies implemented in 2020, on their own, do not create a 2021 "time-bomb" for SMEs. Rather, business failures and policy costs remain...

We quantify and explain the firm responses and worker impacts of foreign demand shocks to domestic production networks. To capture that firms can be indirectly exposed to such shocks by buying from or selling to domestic firms that import or export, we use Belgian data with information on both...

We use a unique high-frequency micro-dataset to estimate the slope of the primitive form of the New Keynesian Phillips curve, which features marginal cost as the relevant real activity variable. Our dataset encompasses product-level prices, costs, and output within the Belgian manufacturing...

We describe the financing and use of long-term care in the Netherlands. Public long-term care insurance is universal and comprehensive; user fees are low compared to other countries. We use linked survey and administrative data to document the distribution of the need for long-term care in the...

In the Netherlands, from 1989 to 2013, in the age group 55-63 the annual exit rate from employment to receiving social insurance benefits in the following year decreased from around 17 percent to 7 percent for men, and from 14 percent to 5 percent for women. We found that less generous social...

The extensive literature on intergenerational mobility highlights the importance of family linkages but fails to provide credible evidence about the underlying family factors that drive the pervasive correlations. We employ a unique combination of Dutch survey and registry data that links math...