How large is the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on labor productivity and unemployment? This paper introduces a labor-search model of technological unemployment, conceptualizing the generative aspect of AI as a learning-by-using technology. AI capability improves through machine learning...

We leverage recent advances in NLP to construct measures of workers' task exposure to AI and machine learning technologies over the 2010 to 2023 period that vary across firms and time. Using a theoretical framework that allows for a labor-saving technology to affect worker productivity both...

The core statistical technology in artificial intelligence is the large-scale transformer network. We propose a new asset pricing model that implants a transformer in the stochastic discount factor. This structure leverages conditional pricing information via cross-asset information sharing and...

The Federal Reserve's dual mandate, to achieve maximum employment and stable prices, requires monitoring a broad range of indicators and carefully evaluating the trade-offs between these goals. We propose a flow-based framework to evaluate real-time shortfalls from maximum employment, focusing...

This paper presents a framework to standardize crowd-sourced computational reproductions in economics through the Social Science Reproduction Platform (SSRP). The approach address four main challenges for computational reproductions: a lack of standardization, aggregation issues, existing...

Even though data on hospital admissions are widely used in health research, hospitalization-related quantities measured using these data are not always clearly conceptualized. Consequently, estimators of these quantities can have unclear rationales and undesirable properties. We evaluate three...

Firm characteristics, based on accounting and financial market data, are commonly used to represent firms in economics and finance. However, investors collectively use a much richer information set beyond firm characteristics, including sources of information that are not readily available to...

Data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) indicate an unprecedented 43 percent increase in the number of people residing in homeless shelters in the United States between 2022 and 2024, reversing the gradual decline over the preceding sixteen years. Three-quarters of this...

Liquidity provision is often attributed to debt-issuing intermediaries like banks. We develop a unified theoretical framework and empirically show that mutual funds issuing demandable equity also provide an economically significant amount of liquidity by insuring against idiosyncratic liquidity...

Finding new international suppliers is costly, so most importers source inputs from a single country. We examine the role of banks in mitigating trade search costs during the 2018-2019 U.S.-China trade tensions. We match data on shipments to U.S. ports with the U.S. credit register to analyze...