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and forecasting. Building on the theory of continuous-time arbitrage-free price processes and the theory of quadratic … volatility forecast, coupled with a parametric lognormal-normal mixture distribution implied by the theoretically and empirically …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470566
approximating strict inflation-forecast targeting are likely to have undesirable properties. We also show that economies with more … general forecast-based policy rules are particularly susceptible to indeterminacy of rational expectations equilibria. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472657
and autocorrelation of error. The marginal forecast errors tend to increase, and the correlations between predictions and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478266
This paper studies the effects of monetary policy in a small, open economy with a floating exchange rate, sticky wages, and rational expectations in both the asset and labor markets. The model developed emphasizes the link between exchange-rate depreciation and nominal wage inflation, embodying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478433
Some previous analyses have suggested that the smoothing of tax rates over time would be a desirable guide for public debt management. One implication of this viewpoint is that future changes in tax rates would be unpredictable based on current information. This proposition is tested by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478487
forecasting movements in short-term interest rates. For brief forecast intervals, however, ex ante changes in long-term rates are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478737
Fiscal foresight -- the phenomenon that legislative and implementation lags ensure that private agents receive clear signals about the tax rates they face in the future -- is intrinsic to the tax policy process. This paper develops an analytical framework to study the econometric implications of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463990
not observed at the time that the forecast is made--but can nonetheless improve forecasting accuracy by reducing parameter … of forecasting excess bond and equity returns. We find substantial improvements in out-of-sample forecast accuracy for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464478
premium. We use this simple observation to forecast the equity-premium time series with the cross-sectional price of risk. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468287
react. Using tax policies as a leading example of foresight, simple theory makes transparent the economic behavior and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461706