Showing 1 - 10 of 117
Much has been written about deterrence, the process of committing to punish an adversary to prevent an attack. But in sufficiently rich environments where attacks evolve over time, formulating a strategy involves not only deterrence but also appeasement, the less costly process of not responding...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014512134
Illegal arms are responsible for thousands of deaths in civil wars every year. Yet, their trade is very hard to detect. We propose a method to statistically detect illegal arms trade based on the investor knowledge embedded in financial markets. We focus on eight countries under UN arms embargo...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465297
This study examines the long-term effects of prenatal exposure to war violence on cognitive and developmental outcomes … consistent effects. These results highlight the intergenerational consequences of war conflict, emphasizing the need for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015195044
We re-examine the determinants of current account balances (CAB) and the saving-investment nexus with focus on emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). We are in a new age in terms of facing not just economic challenges but also other non-economic challenges such as global climate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015145057
We use response curves in a repeated game to analyze key aspects of mutual deterrence: escalation, de-escalation, incomplete deterrence, and deterrence by denial. In this approach, episodes of violence are due to interacting response curves, which disincentivize opponents from attacking through...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015171676
This paper develops an explanation for historical differences in the ways in which territorial disputes between sovereign states have been resolved. The main innovation in the analysis is to allow for three possible equilibria: ú an unfortified border; ú a fortified but peaceful border; and ú...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469063
This paper measures the effects of the risk of war on nine U.S. financial variables using a heteroskedasticity …-based estimation technique. The results indicate that increases in the risk of war cause declines in Treasury yields and equity prices …, a widening of lower-grade corporate spreads, a fall in the dollar, and a rise in oil prices. This war risk factor …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469089
We analyze financial market data in order to produce an ex-ante assessment of the economic consequences of war with …'s price provides a plausible estimate of the probability of war. The spot oil price has moved closely with the Saddam Security …, suggesting that war raises oil prices by around $10 per barrel. Futures prices imply that markets expect these large immediate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469112
This study uses discontinuities in U.S. strategies employed during the Vietnam War to estimate their causal impacts. It …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456283
We study whether war service by one generation affects service by the next generation in later wars, in the context of … service implies that how close to age 21 an individual's father happened to be at a time of war is a key determinant of the … father's likelihood of participation. We find that a father's war service experience has a positive and significant effect on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457297