Children in many extremely poor, remote regions are growing up illiterate and innumerate despite high reported school enrollment ratios. Possible explanations for such poor outcomes include demand - for example, low perceived returns to education compared to opportunity cost; and supply - poor...

To reliably achieve deep decarbonization of the US power sector, a candidate policy must perform robustly across a range of possible future trajectories of demand, fossil fuel prices, and prices of new wind and solar capacity. Using a modified version of the NREL ReEDS model with scenarios that...

In 2019, production on federal lands comprised 40% of domestic coal, 22% of domestic oil, and 12% of domestic natural gas production. Currently, the federal fossil fuel leasing program does not consider the climate costs of burning federal fossil fuels. One way to do so is through a climate...

From 2015 to 2023, the United States transformed from a net importer of natural gas to the world's largest liquified natural gas (LNG) exporter. We find that this surge in LNG exports has reconnected U.S. gas prices to world market prices, after a hiatus of "shut-in" fracked gas. We estimate...

With the expiration of many tax cuts and unmet climate targets, 2025 could be a crucial year for climate policy in the United States. Using an integrated model of energy supply and demand, this paper aims to assess climate policies that the U.S. federal government may consider in 2025 and to...

This paper investigates the possibility, raised by Perron (1989, 1990a), that aggregate economic time series can be characterized as being stationary around broken trend lines. Unlike Perron, we treat the break date as unknown a priori. Asymptotic distributions are developed for recursive,...

In most data sets of labor force participation of the elderly, an empirical regularity that emerges is that retirement rates are particularly high at age 65. While there are numerous economic reasons why individuals may choose to retire at 65, empirical models that have attempted to explain the...

Proposed changes in the U.S. Social Security provisions include increasing the normal retirement age from 65 to 67 and changing from 3% to 8% the increase in benefits for each year that retirement is delayed after normal retirement. The paper considers the interaction between these changes and...

The ongoing analysis of the effects of pension plan provisions on retirement is pursued in this paper. A primary objective of this paper is to test the validity of models previously developed and estimated with data from a Fortune 500 company, here using data from a second large company. The...