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Nonparametric Applications of Bayesian Inference
Chamberlain, Gary - 1996
predictive distribution incorporates the parameter uncertainty, so that it is relevant for decision making under uncertainty in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473148
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Organizational Decision Making Under Uncertainty Shocks
Ballesteros, Luis - 2018
In line with the fallacy of riskification of uncertainty by which decision makers believe that the effects of … institutional theory that points to stakeholder and institutional dynamics affecting economic incentives to invest in prevention and … business continuity. Taken together, this article offers the foundation for a behaviorally plausible, decision …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480579
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Firms’ Management of Infrequent Shocks
Collier, Benjamin L. - 2016
We examine businesses' financial management of a rare, severe event using detailed firm-level data collected following Hurricane Sandy in the New York area. Credit played a prominent role in financing recovery; more negatively affected firms took on debt because of Sandy (38%) than received...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456067
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On the Source and Instability of Probability Weighting
Frydman, Cary; Jin, Lawrence J. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
We propose and experimentally test a new theory of probability distortions in risky choice. The theory is based on a … theory generates additional novel predictions regarding heterogeneity and time variation in probability distortions …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337806
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How People Use Statistics
Bordalo, Pedro; Conlon, John; Gennaioli, Nicola; Kwon, … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
We document two new facts about the distributions of answers in famous statistical problems: they are i) multi-modal and ii) unstable with respect to irrelevant changes in the problem. We offer a model in which, when solving a problem, people represent each hypothesis by attending "bottom up" to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337863
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On the Validity of Using Census Geocode Characteristics to Proxy Individual Socioeconomic Characteristics
Geronimus, Arline T. - 1995
Investigators of social differentials in health outcomes commonly augment incomplete micro data by appending socioeconomic characteristics of residential areas (such as median income in a zip code) to proxy for individual characteristics. However, little empirical attention has been paid to how...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473497
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Evaluation of Subjective Probability Distributions in the HRS
Hurd, Michael D. - 1993
subjective probabilities have great potential use in models of intertemporal decision making under uncertainty …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474380
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Back to the Future : Generating Moment Implications for Continuous-Time Markov Processes
Hansen, Lars Peter - 1993
Continuous-time Markov processes can be characterized conveniently by their infinitesimal generators. For such processes there exist forward and reverse-time generators. We show how to use these generators to construct moment conditions implied by stationary Markov processes. Generalized method...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474503
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The Influence Of Probability on Risky Choice : A parametric Examination
Lattimore, Pamela K. - 1992
The appeal of expected utility theory as a basis for a descriptive model of risky decision making has diminished is a … parametric model of risky decision making. Our results suggest that models which provide for probability transformations are most …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474843
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Estimating Event Probabilities from Macroeconomic Models Using Stochastic Simulation
Fair, Ray C. - 1991
This paper shows how probability questions can be answered within the context of macroeconometric models by using stochastic simulation. One can estimate, for example, the probability of a recession occurring within some fixed period in the future. Probability estimates are presented for two...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475201