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Past government spending in Japan is currently imposing a significant fiscal burden that is reflected in a net debt to output ratio near 150 percent. In addition, the aging of Japanese society implies that public expenditures and transfers payments relative to output are projected to continue to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459229
This paper characterizes empirically how government budget variables, such as spending, taxes, and deficits, affected private-sector consumption in the high-budget-deficit economy of Israel during the first half of the 1980s. The paper develops and estimates an intertemporal optimizing model of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477038
In HANK models, fiscal deficits drive aggregate demand and thus inflation because households are non-Ricardian; in the … mapping from deficits to inflation in HANK is robust to active monetary policy and free of the controversies surrounding the … inflation as the FTPL. This is true even in the simplest FTPL scenario, in which deficits are financed entirely by inflation and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015145053
policy will temporarily aid debt sustainability through a temporary burst in inflation. The anticipation of a possible reform … links debt levels with inflation expectations. As a result, interest rates have two effects: they influence demand and … affect expected inflation in opposite directions. The expectations effect is linked to the impact of interest rates on public …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015145141
This paper studies the implications of the circulation of interest bearing regional debt in a monetary union. Does the circulation of this debt have the same monetary implications as the printing of money by a central government? Or are the obligations of this debt simply backed by future...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468454
economic growth. This paper examines the roles of three other factors: primary budget surpluses, surprise inflation, and pegged … inflation and the pre-Accord peg. In this counterfactual, debt/GDP declines only to 74% in 1974, not 23% as in actual history …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337810
-expected inflation can lower the real value of outstanding government debt. Looking forward, we derive a formula for the debt burden that …-adjusted probability distributions for inflation at different horizons. The estimates suggest that it is unlikely that inflation will lower … the US fiscal burden significantly, and that the effect of higher inflation is modest for plausible counterfactuals. If …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458328
current and future inflation innovations to revalue government debt, reducing reliance on distorting taxes; (2) the role of … inflation in optimal fiscal financing increases with the average maturity of government debt; (3) as average maturity rises, it … is optimal to tradeoff inflation for output stabilization; (4) inflation is relatively more important as a fiscal shock …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458976
We propose a continuous time model of nominal debt and investigate the role of inflation credibility in the potential … for self-fulfilling debt crises. Inflation is costly, but reduces the real value of outstanding debt without the full … punishment of default. With high inflation credibility, which can be interpreted as joining a monetary union or issuing foreign …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459147
policies will adjust. Temporarily explosive debt has no effect on inflation if households expect all adjustments to occur … targeting inflation to stabilizing debt, then debt feeds directly into the path of inflation and monetary policy can no longer … control inflation. News that reduces expected primary surpluses can bring future inflation into the present, well before the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461858