forecast. In a stylized data generating process, we show that such forecasts can be effective even if there is essentially no … rates against 17 OECD countries. We forecast using factors, and using factors combined with any of fundamentals suggested by … improve on the forecast of a "no change" benchmark in the late (1999-2007) but not early (1987-1998) parts of our sample …

and forecasting. Building on the theory of continuous-time arbitrage-free price processes and the theory of quadratic … volatility forecast, coupled with a parametric lognormal-normal mixture distribution implied by the theoretically and empirically …

evidence that the forecast of the Markov model are superior at predicting the direction of change of the exchange rate …

correlation may arise when other persistent variables are used to forecast changes in the exchange rate. We find, in fact, using …

common factors estimated from a large panel of data to help forecast the series of interest. This paper assesses the extent … method stands out to have smaller forecast errors. This method forecasts the series of interest directly, rather than the …

environment, leading to real-time forecast improvements relative to other methods of density forecast combination, such as …

areas of India, and that farmers respond more strongly to the forecast where there is more forecast skill and not at all … when there is no skill. We show, using an IV strategy in which the Indian government forecast of monsoon rainfall serves as … compared with farmers without access to forecasts. Even modest improvements in forecast skill would substantially increase …