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The consumption beta theorem of Breeden makes the expected return on any asset a function only of its covariance with changes in aggregate consumption. It is shown that the theorem is more robust than was indicated by Breeden. The theorem obtains even if one deletes Breeden's assumptions that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478428
, analyze, and manage macroeconomic risk based on the theory and practice of modern contingent claims analysis (CCA). We … illustrate how to use the CCA approach to model and measure sectoral and national risk exposures, and analyze policies to offset … their potentially harmful effects. This new framework provides economic balance sheets for inter-linked sectors and a risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466024
This paper exploits a data rich environment to provide direct econometric estimates of time-varying macroeconomic uncertainty, defined as the common volatility in the unforecastable component of a large number of economic indicators. Our estimates display significant independent variations from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459206
Long-run forecasts of economic variables play an important role in policy, planning, and portfolio decisions. We consider long-horizon forecasts of average growth of a scalar variable, assuming that first differences are second-order stationary. The main contribution is the construction of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459791
If an investor wants to form a portfolio of risky assets and can exert effort to collect information on the future value of these assets before he invests, which assets should he learn about? The best assets to acquire information about are ones the investor expects to hold. But the assets the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464743
We study the design of optimal monetary policy under uncertainty in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. We use a Markov jump-linear-quadratic (MJLQ) approach to study policy design, approximating the uncertainty by different discrete modes in a Markov chain, and by taking...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464755
technology. We use a field experiment with two stages of randomization to generate exogenous variation in the payoffs associated …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457254
discussion of dependency ratios. Two alternative measures of age are explored: mortality risk and remaining life expectancy. With …. In a separate application of age measurement, I examine the consequences of stabilizing labor force participation by age …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465170
We distinguish the measure of risk aversion from the slope coefficient in the linear relationship between the mean … excess return on a stock index and its variance. Even when risk aversion is constant, the latter can vary significantly with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475371
Current practice largely follows restrictive approaches to market risk measurement, such as historical simulation or … cross-fertilize the academic and practitioner communities, promoting improved market risk measurement technologies that draw … produce more accurate risk assessments, treating both portfolio-level and asset-level analysis. Asset-level analysis is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460575