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Polities differ in the extent to which political parties can pre-commit to carry out promised policy actions if they take power. Commitment problems may arise due to a divergence between the ex ante incentives facing national parties that seek to capture control of the legislature and the ex...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467285
The upcoming demographic crisis in Germany demands fundamental reforms of the pension system. In a democracy, reforms are, however, only feasible when they are supported by the majority of the electorate. To determine whether the majority is in favor of reforms of the pension system, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470215
Prior to elections, governments (at all levels) frequently undertake a consumption binge. Taxes are cut, transfers are raised, and government spending is distorted towards highly visible items. The "political business cycle" (better be thought of as "the political budget cycle") has been...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476639
main opponents. At the same time, formally winning the election does not guarantee staying in power. We present a unified …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458146
Elections between black and white candidates tend to involve close margins and high turnout. Using a novel dataset of municipal vote returns during the rise of black mayors in U.S. cities, this paper establishes new facts about turnout and competition in close interracial elections. In the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460343
I establish four facts regarding the pattern of NLRB supervised representation election activity over the past 45 years …: 1) the quantity of election activity has fallen sharply and discontinuously since the mid-70's after increasing between … forty years. I develop a simple optimizing model of the union decision to hold a representation election that can account …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471560
In most national elections, voters face a key choice between continuity and change. Electoral turnovers occur when the incumbent candidate or party fails to win reelection. To understand how turnovers affect national outcomes, we study the universe of presidential and parliamentary elections...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012938735
supervision. After this change, failure rates declined during gubernatorial election campaigns for banks under gubernatorial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013191033
Democratic representation is constrained by the alternatives available to voters. In this paper, we develop a methodology to gauge the extent to which the "supply side" of politics hinders voter welfare. Using rich data on thousands of candidates in three Brazilian legislative elections, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013191060
Quantifying the value that legislators give to reelection relative to policy is crucial to understanding electoral accountability. We estimate the preferences for office and policy of members of the US Senate, using a structural approach that exploits variation in polls, position-taking and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013191061