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We identify a shock that explains the bulk of fluctuations in equity risk premia, and show that the shock also explains … contract workers. A real model with labor market frictions and fluctuations in risk appetite can explain all of these facts …, both qualitatively and quantitatively. The size of risk-driven fluctuations depends on the relationship between the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012510571
We review the literature on uncertainty shocks and business cycle research. First, we motivate the study of uncertainty shocks by documenting the presence of time-variation in the volatility of macroeconomic time series. Second, we enumerate the mechanisms that researchers have postulated to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479292
Uncertainty in both financial markets and the real economy rises sharply during recessions. We develop a model of informational interdependence between financial markets and the real economy, linking uncertainty to information production and aggregate economic activities. We argue that there...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480637
We inject aggregate uncertainty - risk and ambiguity - into an otherwise standard business cycle model and describe its …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458347
We develop a theory of endogenous uncertainty and business cycles in which short-lived shocks can generate long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458691
Can increased uncertainty about the future cause a contraction in output and its components? An identified uncertainty shock in the data causes significant declines in output, consumption, investment, and hours worked. Standard general-equilibrium models with flexible prices cannot reproduce...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460240
Emerging markets business cycle models treat default risk as part of an exogenous interest rate on working capital …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461507
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000134802
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001387089
Macroeconomic dynamics are shaped by how individual incentives to spend and accumulate interact with the decisions of others. The goal of this paper is to identify--within a simple large-game-theoretic structure--which types of agent interactions favor which types of dynamic equilibrium...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014635624