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Long business expansions have repeatedly generated expectations of self- perpetuating prosperity, yet it is clear that such popular forecasts always proved wrong eventually. Few business cycle peaks are successfully predicted; indeed, most are publicly recognized only with lengty delays. Analysts...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471735
We propose an approach to measuring the state of the economy via textual analysis of business news. From the full text of 800,000 Wall Street Journal articles for 1984-2017, we estimate a topic model that summarizes business news into interpretable topical themes and quantifies the proportion of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012660022
Using a new survey of firms' inflation expectations in France, we provide novel evidence about the measurement and formation of inflation expectations on the part of firms. First, French firms report inflation expectations with a smaller, but still positive, bias than households and display less...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012660054
Unemployment is notoriously difficult to predict. In previous studies, once country fixed effects are added to panel estimates, few variables predict changes in unemployment rates. Using panel data for 29 European countries over 439 months between 1985 and 2021 in an unbalanced country*month...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012616620
We link a new UK management survey covering 8,000 firms to panel data on productivity in manufacturing and services. There is a large variation in management practices, which are highly correlated with productivity, profitability and size. Uniquely, the survey collects firms' micro forecasts of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012794618
Have macroeconomic forecasts grown more or less accurate over time? This paper assembles, examines, and interprets evidence bearing on this question. Contrary to some critics, there are no indications that U.S. forecasts have grown systematically worse, that is, less accurate, more biased, or...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476970
Was the Depression forecastable? After the Crash, how long did it take contemporary economic forecasters to realize how severe the downturn was going to be? How long should it Have taken them to come to this realization? These questions are addressed by studying the predictions of the Harvard...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476974
The targeted deficit reductions of the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings (GRH) law are to be temporarily suspended in case of an official determination that real economic growth either (a) has been less than one percent in the two most recent reported quarters, or (b) is projected to be less than zero in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477003