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We develop and analyze a model of a multi-stage investment project that captures many features of R&D ventures and start-up companies. An important feature these problems share is that the firm learns about the potential profitability of the project throughout its life, but that research and...
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This paper introduces a new cost dataset for a commercial aircraft firm and uses this data to analyze the dynamics of learning in commercial aircraft production. This dataset is found to be inconsistent with the simple learning hypothesis, and particularly the prediction that a firm's unit cost...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471667
We survey work using Bayesian learning in macroeconomics, highlighting common themes and new directions. First, we present many of the common types of learning problems agents face---signal extraction problems---and trace out their effects on macro aggregates, in different strategic settings....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012660016
The social and the private returns to education differ when education can increase productivity, and also be used to signal productivity. We show how instrumental variables can be used to separately identify and estimate the social and private returns to education within the employer learning...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479834
Experimental studies rarely consider the shape and nature of the education production function, which is useful for deriving optimal levels of input substitution in increasingly resource constrained environments. Because of the rapid expansion of EdTech as a substitute for traditional learning...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481924
Shocks to equity options' ATM implied volatility (ATMIV) are followed by persistently lower short-term rates. Shocks to the ratio of OTM puts' over OTM calls' implied volatilities (P/C) are followed by persistently higher rates. The stock's and Treasury-bond's ATMIV indices, which measure market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461893
We develop a general equilibrium model in which income and dividends are smooth, but asset prices are subject to large moves (jumps). A prominent feature of the model is that the optimal decision of investors to learn the unobserved state triggers large asset-price jumps. We show that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463833
We survey the recent literature on learning in financial markets. Our main theme is that many financial market phenomena that appear puzzling at first sight are easier to understand once we recognize that parameters in financial models are uncertain and subject to learning. We discuss phenomena...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464003