This paper examines product markets in which long-term contracts and spot transactions coexist. Such markets are characterized by "multiple-price systems," wherein adjustment to supply and demand shocks occurs through spot prices, while contract prices are fixed, or adjust slowly. We derive the...

The search for microeconomic foundations of non-Walrasian outcomes in labor and product markets has spawned many studies of contracting. This paper emphasizes the role of contracts for market equilibrium -- for many raw materials and basic industrial commodities -- in which long-term contractual...

We present and test an explanation for lags in the adjustment of wholesale gasoline prices to changes in crude oil prices. Our simple model with costly adjustment of production and inventories implies that output prices will respond with a lag to cost shocks even in the absence of menu costs,...

The paper examines welfare effects and the trade balance response to changes in the world oil prices and interest rates for a small oil-importing economy. The trade balance is mainly seen as the difference between saving and investment, and these are derived from intertemporal optimization. It...

This paper examines the current-account response to anticipated future increases in real oil prices as well as to unexpected increases which may be temporary or permanent in nature. The analysis is conducted using an intertemporal two-period model of a small open economy which produces both...

This paper examines three possible sources of "de-industrialization" in an open economy: monetary disinflation, an increase in the international price of oil, and a 'domestic oil discovery. The analysis is conducted using a model which incorporates different speeds of adjustment in goods and...

We use a new micro data set to estimate a stochastic industry-equilibrium model of the oil industry. This effort is a first step towards studying the importance of ongoing structural changes in the oil market in a general-equilibrium model of the world economy. We analyze the impact of the...

We study the performance of many traditional and novel, text-based variables for in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting of oil spot, futures, and energy company stock returns, and changes in oil volatility, production, and inventories. After controlling for small-sample biases, we find evidence...

What is the impact of granular credit risk on banks and on the economy? We provide the first causal identification of single-name counterparty exposure risk in bank portfolios by applying a new empirical approach on an administrative matched bank-firm dataset from Norway. Exploiting the fat tail...