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Post-recession US Employment through the Lens of a Non-linear Okun's law
Chinn, Menzie D. - 2013
This paper aims at investigating the relationship between employment and GDP in the United States. We disentangle trend and cyclical employment components by estimating a non-linear Okun's law based on a smooth transition error-correction model that simultaneously accounts for long-term...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459614
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Household Debt and Business Cycles Worldwide
Mian, Atif R. - 2015
unemployment, and negative growth forecasting errors in a panel of 30 countries from 1960 to 2012. Consistent with the "credit …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457088
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Interest Rate Risk and Other Determinants of Post-WWII U.S. Government Debt/GDP Dynamics
Hall, George J. - 2010
This paper uses the sequence of government budget constraints to motivate estimates of interest payments on the U.S. Federal government debt. We explain why our estimates differ conceptually and quantitatively from those reported by the U.S. government. We use our estimates to account for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462950
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U.S. Growth in the Decade Ahead
Feldstein, Martin S. - 2010
Not all of that extra output will remain in the United States. If the trade deficit is reduced by three percent of GDP, the rise in exports and decline in imports will reduce output available for U.S. consumption and investment by about 0.3 percent a year
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462967
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The Mystery of Human Capital as Engine of Growth, or Why the US Became the Economic Superpower in the 20th Century
Ehrlich, Isaac - 2007
This paper offers a thesis as to why the US overtook the UK and other European countries in the 20th century in both aggregate and per-capita GDP, as a case study of recent models of endogenous growth where human capital is the "engine of growth". The conjecture is that the ascendancy of the US...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465788
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Okun's Law : Fit at Fifty?
Ball, Laurence M. - 2013
This paper asks how well Okun's Law fits short-run unemployment movements in the United States since 1948 and in twenty … the unemployment rate - varies substantially across countries. This variation is partly explained by idiosyncratic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459993
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The Recovery From The Great Recession : A Long, Evolving Expansion
Shambaugh, Jay C.; Strain, Michael R. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021
Prior to 2020, the Great Recession was the most important macroeconomic shock to the United States economy in generations. Millions lost jobs and homes. At its peak, one in ten workers who wanted a job could not find one. On an annual basis, the economy contracted by more than it had since the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482669
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Separating the Business Cycle from Other Economic Fluctuations
Hall, Robert E. - 2005
of key variables-potential GDP, the natural rate of unemployment, and the equilibrium real interest rate, need to solve a … them. Further, low-frequency movements of unemployment suggest a failure of the basic idea that departures from the …-frequency movements of unemployment. I conclude that monetary policymakers should not try to discern neutral values of real variables …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467025
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Asymmetric Crime Cycles
Mocan, H. Naci - 2005
unemployment rate, to decreases (increases) in per capita real GDP and to decreases (increases) in the police force. The same … result is obtained between unemployment and property crime in annual state-level panel data. These results suggest that it …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467475
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Has Creative Destruction Become More Destructive?
Komlos, John - 2014
Schumpeter's concept of creative destruction as the engine of capitalist development is well-known. However, that the destructive part of creative destruction is a social cost and therefore biases our estimate of the impact of the innovation on NNP and on welfare is hardly acknowledged, with the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458287