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We revisit the question of what determines the credibility of macroeconomic policies here, of promises to repay public … probability, much conventional wisdom on the determinantes of credibility need no longer hold. For instance, appointing a … conservative policymaker or denominating public debt in foreign currency may reduce, not increase, credibility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468765
This paper surveys the recent literature on the theory of macroeconomic policy. We study the effect of various … incentive constraints on the policy making process, such as lack of credibility, political opportunism, political ideology, and …: it covers credibility issues, political business cycles, and optimal design of monetary institutions. Part II deals with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472486
credibility, because of time-inconsistency of the optimal policy under commitment, and (iii) coordination failure, because a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455812
The aging of the population shakes the confidence in the economic viability of pay-as-you-go social security systems. We demonstrate how in a political-economy framework the shaken cofidence leads to the downsizing of the social security-system, and to the emergence of supplemental individual...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469430
This paper argues that maintaining price stability requires not only commitment to an appropriate monetary policy rule, but an appropriate fiscal policy rule as well. 'Ricardian equivalence' does not imply that fiscal policy is irrelevant, except in the case of a certain class of policies...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470657
This note comments on two central issues for fiscal policy design in the UK, highlighted in the recent Code for Fiscal Stability' proposed by the new Labour government. The first concerns the merits of the so-called golden rule of public sector investment' -- the proposition that, over the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472285
This paper provides evidence on the behavior of public debt managers during fiscal" stabilizations in OECD countries over the last two decades. We find that debt maturity tends to" lengthen the more credible the program, the lower the long-term interest rate and the higher the" volatility of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472502
The paper considers the role of limits upon the permissible growth of public debt, like those stipulated in the Maastricht treaty, in making price stability possible. It is shown that a certain type of fiscal instability, namely variations in the present value of current and future primary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473158
We propose and solve an optimizing model which explains counterintuitive effects of fiscal policy in terms of expectations. If government spending follows an upward-trending stochastic process which the public believes may fall sharply when it reaches specific "target points," then optimizing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475149
Recurrent concerns over debt sustainability in emerging and developed nations have prompted renewed debate on the role of fiscal rules. Their optimality, however, remains unclear. We provide a quantitative analysis of fiscal rules in a standard model of sovereign debt accumulation and default...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455311