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Commodity prices, commodity currencies, and global economic developments
Groen, Jan J. J. - 2010
In this paper we seek to produce forecasts of commodity price movements that can systematically improve on naive statistical benchmarks, and revisit the forecasting performance of changes in commodity currencies as efficient predictors of commodity prices, a view emphasized in the recent...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462882
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The Billion Prices Project : Using Online Prices for Measurement and Research
Cavallo, Alberto - 2016
New data-gathering techniques, often referred to as "Big Data" have the potential to improve statistics and empirical research in economics. In this paper we describe our work with online data at the Billion Prices Project at MIT and discuss key lessons for both inflation measurement and some...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456563
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How Fast are Semiconductor Prices Falling?
Byrne, David M. - 2015
The Producer Price Index (PPI) for the United States suggests that semiconductor prices have barely been falling in recent years, a dramatic contrast from the rapid declines reported from the mid-1980s to the early 2000s. This slowdown in the rate of decline is puzzling in light of evidence that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457592
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Price and Quality Dispersion in an Offshoring Market : Evidence from Semiconductor Production Services
Byrne, David - 2013
This paper studies price and quality differences across international intermediate input suppliers. We develop price measures that account for (i) differences in product characteristics, (ii) unobserved quality differences, and (iii) pure (frictional) price dispersion across suppliers. Using...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459006
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Commodity prices and markets : [NBER East Asia Seminar on Economics, volume 20 ; collection of papers that were presented at the 20th Annual East Asia Seminar on Economics (EASE) ; held in Hong Kong, June 26 - 27, 2008]
Itō, Takatoshi (contributor); Rose, Andrew (contributor) - 2011
Forecasting currencies with commodity prices -- Commodity prices, commodity currencies, and global economic developments / Jan J. J. Groen and Paolo A. Pesenti -- Comments: Kalok Chan, Roberto S. Mariano -- The relationship between commodity prices and currency exchange rates: evidence from the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008909722
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World Shocks, World Prices, and Business Cycles : An Empirical Investigation
Fernández, Andrés - 2016
intratemporal relative price such as the terms of trade and possibly an intertemporal price such as the world interest rate. This … paper presents an empirical framework in which multiple commodity prices and the world interest rate transmit world … disturbances. Estimates on a panel of 138 countries over the period 1960-2015 indicate that world shocks explain on average 33 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455847
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Global Cycles : Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015
Reinhart, Carmen M. - 2016
Capital flow and commodity cycles have long been connected with economic crises. Sparse historical data, however, has made it difficult to connect their timing. We date turning points in global capital flows and commodity prices across two centuries and provide estimates from alternative data...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456715
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Was This Time Different? Fiscal Policy in Commodity Republics
Céspedes, Luis Felipe - 2013
We revisit the issue of fiscal procyclicality in commodity-rich nations -commodity republics in the nomenclature of this paper. Since commodity prices are plausibly a main driver of fiscal policy outcomes in these countries, we focus on the behavior of fiscal variables across the commodity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458915
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Are Commodity Futures Prices Barometers of the Global Economy?
Hu, Conghui - 2013
This paper analyzes whether commodity futures prices traded in the United States reveal information relevant to stock prices of East Asian economies including China, Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Taiwan. We find significant and positive predictive powers of overnight futures returns of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458956