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I review the literature on financial speculation driven by belief disagreements from a macro- economics perspective. To …-selling constraints, speculation can generate over- valuation and speculative bubbles. Leverage can substantially inflate speculative …, speculation induces pro- cyclical asset valuation. When speculation affects the price of aggregate assets, it also influences …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482642
In a model with multiple Pareto-ranked equilibria we add trade in assets that pay based on the realization of a sunspot. Asset trading restricts the equilibrium set in a way that raises welfare by eliminating equilibria with a high likelihood of disasters. When the probability of a disaster is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457853
We identify different roles traders play using data with trader identities for all transactions in SENSEX-index stocks on the Bombay Stock Exchange from January 2005 to December 2011. Individual day traders (IDT) are identified as "noise traders", who play an important role in the market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014250145
use search-and-bargaining theory to ascertain conditions that allow trade to temporarily freeze in decentralized markets …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012629430
Parameter learning strongly amplifies the impact of macro shocks on marginal utility when the representative agent has a preference for early resolution of uncertainty. This occurs as rational belief updating generates subjective long-run consumption risks. We consider general equilibrium models...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458957
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477082
This paper reports empirical tests for the existence of rational bubbles in stock prices. The analysis focuses on a familiar model that defines market fundamentals to be the expected present value of dividends, discounted at a constantrate, and defines a rational bubble to be a self-confirming...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477310
A rational bubble would involve a self-confirming belief that an asset price depends on information that includes variables or parameters that are not part of market fundamentals. The existing literature shows that, if market fundamentals are economically interesting, i.e., forward looking, any...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477466
There is a large and growing empirical literature that tests forthe existence of asset-price bubbles or "sunspot" equilibria -- equilibria unrelated to market fundamentals. Our view is that even tests for non-stationary asset-price bubbles should not be interpreted as such. In the present paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477481
This paper develops a stochastic equilibrium model of an open economy incorporating speculation in the forward exchange … market. The model is used to examine two issues. The first is the role of speculation in stabilizing the economy against … stochastic disturbances. Much risk averse speculation stabilizes domestic income against disturbances in the domestic bond market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477963