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What would a hypothetical one million US deaths in the Covid-19 epidemic mean for mortality of individuals at the … population level? To put estimates of Covid-19 mortality into perspective, we estimate age-specific mortality for an epidemic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482000
This paper reviews the literature on incorporating behavioural elements into epidemiological models of pandemics. While modelling behaviour by forward-looking rational agents can provide some insight into the time paths of pandemics, the non-stationary nature of Susceptible-Infected-Removed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481485
I use a simple SIR model, augmented to include deaths, to elucidate how pandemic progression is affected by the control of contagion, and examine the key trade-offs that underlie policy design. I illustrate how the cost of reducing the "reproduction number" R0 depends on how it changes the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481704
epidemic model and link valuations to infections via an asset-pricing framework with vaccines. Infections lower earnings growth …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481801
We build a minimalist model of the macroeconomics of a pandemic, with two essential components. The first is productivity-related: if the virus forces firms to shed labor beyond a certain threshold, productivity suffers. The second component is a credit market imperfection: because lenders...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481811
We study the optimal lockdown policy for a planner who wants to control the fatalities of a pandemic while minimizing the output costs of the lockdown. We use the SIR epidemiology model and a linear economy to formalize the planner's dynamic control problem. The optimal policy depends on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481937
This paper presents a simple price-theory approach to Covid-19 lockdown and reopening policy. The key idea is to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482312
Malawian epidemic. In the developed framework, people select between different sexual practices while knowing the inherent risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459709
People continue to live in many big American cities, because in those cities housing costs less than new construction. While cities may lose their productive edge, their houses remain and population falls only when housing depreciates. This paper presents a simple durable housing model of urban...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470118
This paper extends the Ramsey model's normative analysis to issues of generational welfare and intergenerational transfers. A planner, who maximizes the discounted welfare of an endless stream of generations, is intrinsically biased against larger cohorts, which are more costly to provide...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470188