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capital mobility which implies that currency speculation commands no risk premium. If this assumption is dropped a number of … domestic asset supplies. Finally, introducing risk aversion on the part of speculators can reduce the response on impact of the … exchange rate to changes in domestic asset supplies. In this sense rational speculators, if they are less risk averse than …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478121
For several decades until the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), Covered Interest Parity (CIP) appeared to hold quite closely--even as a broad macroeconomic relationship applying to daily or weekly data. Not only have CIP deviations significantly increased since the GFC, but potential macrofinancial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480075
Recent research has found that the Taylor-rule fundamentals have power to forecast changes in U.S. dollar exchange rates out of sample. Our work casts some doubt on that claim. However, we find strong evidence of a related in-sample anomaly. When we include U.S. inflation in the well-known...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453654
the real exchange rate - have apparently contradictory implications for the relationship of the foreign exchange risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457626
none of our estimates require a systematic association between currency risk premia and predictable movements in exchange …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458373
because the former allows risk sharing across countries while the latter does not. The analysis is performed in a two … demonstrated that the ability to share risk across countries in the fixed rate regime does not necessarily lead to higher welfare … than the inability to share risk in the flexible rate regime …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478269
a sticky-price alternative to Lucas's (1982) exchage rate risk premium model. We show that the level risk premium' in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472119
The foreign exchange risk premium in an exchange rate target zone regime with devaluation/realignment risks is derived … devaluation/realignment risk, is taken into account. The risk premium is then the sum of two separate risk premia, arising from … real and nominal exchange rate premia are considered. The real and nominal risk premia from movements within the band are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475561
average risk tolerance across investors. The same constant applies to every real foreign investment held by every investor … market risk premia, an average of world market volatilities, and an average of exchange rate volatilities, where we take the … exchange risk approaches zero, the constant will be equal to one minus the ratio of the variance of the world market return to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476106
well documented facts, the failure of log-linear empirical exchange rate models of the 1970's and the variability of risk …, can have a significant effect on risk premiums in the foreign exchange market and can induce conditional volatility of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476638