States, Canada, Germany, and several other OECD countries during and after the Great Recession of 2008-09. Unemployment rates … increased moderately in Canada. More recent data also show that, unlike Germany and Canada, the U.S. unemployment rate remains … did not change substantially in Germany, increased and remained at relatively high levels in the United States, and …

forecasting of daily and lower frequency volatility and return distributions. Most procedures for modeling and forecasting … ARCH or stochastic volatility models, which often perform poorly at intraday frequencies. Use of realized volatility … variation, we formally develop the links between the conditional covariancematrix and the concept of realized volatility. Next …

This paper provides estimates of the effect of unemployment insurance benefits on labor supply outcomes over the … nonlinear benefit schedules provides experimental estimates of behavioral labor supply responses throughout the unemployment … spell that are comparable over time. For a given unemployment duration, the behavioral effect of UI benefit levels on labor …

(increase) world interest rates but also to increase (reduce) private leverage. This in turn increased (decreased) volatility in …

control for low-frequency movements in inflation, unemployment, and growth that are pervasive in the post-WWII period. We show … that cyclical fluctuations of inflation are related to cyclical movements in real activity and unemployment, in line with …

We propose that the natural rate of unemployment has an active role in the business cycle, in contrast to the … Phillips-curve framework of low---often extremely low---response of inflation to unemployment could be the result of fairly … most Phillips-curve studies, that conclude that inflation has little relation to unemployment. We suggest that the flat …

We show that the largest increase in unemployment benefits in U.S. history had large spending impacts and small job …