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There has been a long-running debate about whether stock market prices are determined by fundamentals. To date no consensus has been reached. An important issue in this debate concerns the circumstances in which deviations from fundamentals are consistent with rational behavior. A...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475283
This paper provides a guide to macroeconomic applications of the theory of rational bubbles. It shows that rational … bubbles can be easily incorporated into standard macroeconomic models, and illustrates how they can be used to account for … important macroeconomic phenomena. It also discusses the welfare implications of rational bubbles and the role of policy in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453479
I examine the impact of alternative monetary policy rules on a rational asset price bubble, through the lens of an overlapping generations model with nominal rigidities. A systematic increase in interest rates in response to a growing bubble is shown to enhance the fluctuations in the latter,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459855
We develop a model of banking crises which Is consistent with two important features of the data: First, banking crises are usually preceded by credit booms. Second, credit booms often do not result in a crisis. That is, there are "good" booms as well as "bad" booms in the language of Gorton and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481336
Aside from the equilibrium that Hotelling (1931) displayed, his model of non-renewable resources also contains a continuum of bubble equilibria. In all the equilibria the price of the resource rises at the rate of interest. In a bubble equilibrium, however, the consumption of the resource peters...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465330
The world has a shortage of financial assets. Asset supply is having a hard time keeping up with the global demand for … speculative bubbles (which recently have transited from emerging markets, to the dot-coms, to real estate, to gold...), the … and deflationary episodes in parts of the world, all fall into place once one adopts this asset shortage perspective …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465908
are associated with lower spreads between the country's borrowing rate and world interest rates. Both effects jointly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453995
We evaluate Eugene Fama's claim that stock prices do not exhibit price bubbles. Based on US industry returns 1926 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455490
History is important to the study of financial bubbles precisely because they are extremely rare events, but history … can be misleading. The rarity of bubbles in the historical record makes the sample size for inference small. Restricting … examine the frequency of large, sudden increases in market value in a broad panel data of world equity markets extending from …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456977
We live in a new world economy characterized by financial globalization and historically low interest rates. This … environment is conducive to countries experiencing credit bubbles that have large macroeconomic effects at home and are quickly … propagated abroad. In previous work, we built on the theory of rational bubbles to develop a framework to think about the origins …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457733