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The Dynamics of the U.S. Trade Balance and Real Exchange Rate : The J Curve and Trade Costs?

Alessandria, George A. - 2019

We study how changes in trade barriers contributed to the dynamics of the US trade balance and real exchange rate since 1980 - a period when trade tripled. Using two dynamic trade models, we decompose fluctuations in the trade balance into terms related to trade integration (global and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479517

Protectionism and the Business Cycle

Barattieri, Alessandro - 2018

We study the consequences of protectionism for macroeconomic fluctuations. First, using high-frequency trade policy data, we present fresh evidence on the dynamic effects of temporary trade barriers. Estimates from country-level and panel VARs show that protectionism acts as a supply shock,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453361

The Dollar and the Trade Deficit in the 1980s : A Personal View

Feldstein, Martin - 1993

The sharp gyrations of the dollar and of the trade deficit in the 1980s were among the most novel and least understood economic developments of the decade. This paper, which was written as part of the NBER project on American economic policy in the 1980s, examines the reasons for the dollar's...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474634

The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting

Rogoff, Kenneth S. - 2008

Are structural models getting closer to being able to forecast exchange rates at short horizons? Here we argue that misinterpretation of some new out-of-sample tests for nested models, over-reliance on asymptotic test statistics, and failure to sufficiently check robustness to alternative time...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464525

Explaining the Effects of Government Spending Shocks on Consumption and the Real Exchange Rate

Ravn, Morten O. - 2007

Using panel structural VAR analysis and quarterly data from four industrialized countries, we document that an increase in government purchases leads to an expansion in output and private consumption, a deterioration in the trade balance, and a depreciation of the real exchange rate (i.e., a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465322

Productivity, External Balance and Exchange Rates : Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism Among G7 Countries

Corsetti, Giancarlo - 2006

more open economies), they appreciate in the US and Japan (the largest and least open economies in our sample); results are …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466182

Interest Rates, Exchange Rates and International Adjustment

Dooley, Michael P. - 2005

In this paper we examine the behavior of interest rates and exchange rates following a variety of shocks to the international monetary system. Our analysis suggests that real interest rates in the US and Europe will remain low relative to historical experience for an extended period but converge...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466900

Obstfeld and Rogoff's International Macro Puzzles : A Quantitative Assessment

Eaton, Jonathan - 2015

Obstfeld and Rogoff (2001) propose that trade frictions lie behind key puzzles in international macroeconomics. We take a dynamic multicountry model of international trade, production, and investment to data from 19 countries to assess this proposition quantitatively. Using the framework...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456897

Intraday Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate Movements : News or Noise?

Ito, Takatoshi - 1988

Intraday movements in the yen/dollar rate are examined over the 1980-86 period using opening and closing quotes in the … and U.S. stock prices suggests that intraday yen/dollar rate movements do contain at least some relevant information …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476358

Short-term and Long-Term Expectations of the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate : Evidence from Survey Data

Frankel, Jeffrey A. - 1987

Three surveys of exchange rate expectations allow us to measure directly the expected rates of return on yen versus … dollars. Expectations of yen appreciation against the dollar have been (1) consistently large, (2) variable, and (3) greater …-term horizons expectations exhibit bandwagon effects, while at longer-term horizons they show the reverse. A 10 percent yen …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476853

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