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Forecasting Crashes : Trading Volume, Past Returns and Conditional Skewness in Stock Prices

Chen, Joseph - 2000

This paper is an investigation into the determinants of asymmetries in stock returns. We develop a series of cross-sectional regression specifications which attempt to forecast skewness in the daily returns of individual stocks. Negative skewness is most pronounced in stocks that have...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471074

Practical Volatility and Correlation Modeling for Financial Market Risk Management

Andersen, Torben G. - 2005

What do academics have to offer market risk management practitioners in financial institutions? Current industry practice largely follows one of two extremely restrictive approaches: historical simulation or RiskMetrics. In contrast, we favor flexible methods based on recent developments in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467618

Alternative Models For Conditional Stock Volatility

Pagan, Adrian R. - 1989

This paper compares several statistical models for monthly stock return volatility. The focus is on U.S. data from 1834 … volatility that are inconsistent with stationary models for conditional heteroskedasticity, We show the importance of … of stock volatility, even over the 1834-1925 period …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476093

Tests of Excess Forecast Volatility in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets

Froot, Kenneth A. - 1987

Simple regression tests that have power against the alternatives that. asset prices and expected future asset returns are excessively volatile are developed and performed for the foreign exchange and stock markets. These tests have a number of advantages over alternative, variance hounds...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476706

Real Effects of Stabilizing Private Money Creation

Xu, Chenzi; Yang, He - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

We show that decentralized privately created money with unstable values can hinder the traded, more transaction-friction sensitive, sector of the economy. We do so in the context of the NationalBanking Act of 1864 in the United States that created a new federally-regulated, fully-backed currency...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210088

Financial Innovation and the Control of Monetary Aggregates : Some Evidence from Canada

Lucas, Robert E, Jr - 1983

This paper presents an empirical test of the proposition that control of a monetary aggregate will generate a rise in its velocity.The test is carried out utilizing the Canadian experience of controlling Ml growth from 1975:3 to 1982:3. Section One of the paper presents evidence of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477944

Measuring Money Growth When Financial Markets Are Changing

Stock, James H. - 1994

This paper examines the problem of measuring the growth of a monetary aggregate in the presence of innovations in financial markets and changes in the relationship between individual assets and output. We propose constructing a monetary aggregate so that it is a good leading indicator of nominal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474019

Simulated Likelihood Estimation of Diffusions with an Application to Exchange Rate Dynamics in Incomplete Markets

Brandt, Michael W. - 2001

We present an econometric method for estimating the parameters of a diffusion model from discretely sampled data. The estimator is transparent, adaptive, and inherits the asymptotic properties of the generally unattainable maximum likelihood estimator. We use this method to estimate a new...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470313

Modeling and Forecasting Realized Volatility

Andersen, Torben G. - 2001

forecasting of daily and lower frequency volatility and return distributions. Most procedures for modeling and forecasting … ARCH or stochastic volatility models, which often perform poorly at intraday frequencies. Use of realized volatility … variation, we formally develop the links between the conditional covariancematrix and the concept of realized volatility. Next …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470566

"Excess Volatility" and the German Stock Market, 1876-1990

De Long, J. Bradford - 1992

has also possessed excess volatility' in the past century. It finds no evidence of excess volatility in the pre-World War … I German stock market. By contrast, there is some evidence of excess volatility in the post-World War II German stock … volatility of German stock indices before 1914 …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474925

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