This paper studies the dynamics of unemployment (u) and its natural rate (u*), with u* measured by real-time estimates …

We propose that the natural rate of unemployment has an active role in the business cycle, in contrast to the … Phillips-curve framework of low---often extremely low---response of inflation to unemployment could be the result of fairly … most Phillips-curve studies, that conclude that inflation has little relation to unemployment. We suggest that the flat …

This paper argues that hysteresis helps explain the long-run behavior of unemployment. The natural rate of unemployment … is influenced by the path of actual unemployment, and hence by shifts in aggregate demand. I review past evidence for …

inflation, strong real wage growth, and low rate of unemployment in the U.S. economy during the late 1990s. Many of these … univariate trends in the unemployment rate and in the rate of productivity growth, these coefficients are stable. This suggests … explanations of movements of wages, prices and unemployment over the 1990s, and indeed over the past forty years, must focus on …

U.S. macroeconomic evidence shows a negative relation between the rate of change of wages and unemployment. In contrast …, most theories of wage determination imply a negative relation between the level of wages and unemployment. In this paper … -- from real interest rates to oil prices to payroll taxes -- on the natural rate of unemployment …

of unemployment. It is this body of work we assess in this paper. We reach two main conclusions. First, there has been … think for example about the relation between technological progrss and unemployment. Second, empirical knowledge lags behind … countries. We look at two issues, the relation of wages to unemployment, and the risk of European unemployment …

This paper investigates the precision of conventional and unconventional estimates of the natural rate of unemployment … series for unemployment and inflation, including additional supply shift variables in the Phillips curve, using monthly or …

The recent European experience of high persistent unemployment has led to the development of theories of unemployment … hysteresis embodying the idea that the equilibrium unemployment rate depends on the history of the actual unemployment rate. This …

of unemployment" as the unemployment rate consistent with a constant rate of inflation in a hypothetical state having no … relative unemployment rates. Other higher estimates of the natural unemployment rate, close to 7 percent in 1980, result from …

In this paper, a theory of the natural or equilibrium rate of unemployment is built around a theory of the duration of … a minority are on temporary layoff or have just entered the labor force. Thus, high-unemployment labor markets are … efficient. The factors influencing the resulting natural unemployment rate are discussed. Under plausible assumptions, the …