politicians, both with theory and data. The theory is based on a version of the career concerns model of political agency with … implications of the theory and identify the causal effect of larger federal transfers on political corruption and the observed … features of political candidates at the municipal level. In accordance with the predictions of the theory, we find that larger …

points) is identified. The theory predicts war to be more likely when resource and group concentration are high, and the …

geographic location for inter-State conflict. The main predictions of the theory are that conflict tends to be more likely when …

sub-standard economic performance. They are: long-term trends in world commodity prices, volatility, crowding out of …