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In this paper we propose a general equilibrium model that successfully reproduces the historical experience of the cross section of US stock prices as well as the realized history of the market portfolio. The model achieves this while addressing traditional concerns in the asset pricing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469492
I use a vector autoregressive model (VAR) to decompose an individual firm's stock return into two components: changes in cash-flow expectations (i.e., cash-flow news) and changes in discount rates (i.e., expected-return news). The VAR yields three main results. First, firm-level stock returns...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470484
Buyout booms form in response to declines in the aggregate risk premium. We document that the equity risk premium is the primary determinant of buyout activity rather than credit-specific conditions. We articulate a simple explanation for this phenomenon: a low risk premium increases the present...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456263
, we ask what is, empirically, the best discounting method. To do this, we study listed firms, whose actual prices and … expected cash flows can be observed. We compare different discounting approaches on their ability to predict actual market … prices. We find that discounting based on expected returns (such as variants on the CAPM or multi-factor model), performs …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013537790
We use discounted cash flow analysis to measure a country's fiscal capacity. Crucially, the discount rate applied to projected cash flows includes a GDP risk premium. We apply our valuation method to the CBO's projections for the U.S. federal government's deficit between 2022 and 2051 and debt...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013190996
This paper proposes a dynamic risk-based model that captures the high expected returns on value stocks relative to growth stocks, and the failure of the capital asset pricing model to explain these expected returns. To model the difference between value and growth stocks, we introduce a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467541
The term structure of equity returns is downward-sloping: stocks with high cash flow duration earn 1.10% per month lower returns than short-duration stocks in the cross section. I create a measure of cash flow duration at the firm level using balance sheet data to show this novel fact. Factor...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456159
understand the challenge of translating risk management theory into managerial action. Cephalon Inc., a biotech firm, bought a … hedging concepts articulated by Froot, Scharfstein and Stein (1993). In applying the theory to practice, there are lessons for … both managers and theorists. Managers consider deadweight costs of financing and of risk management, whereas theory tends …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471002
The average cash to assets ratio for U.S. industrial firms increases by 129% from 1980 to 2004. Because of this increase in the average cash ratio, American firms at the end of the sample period can pay back their debt obligations with their cash holdings, so that the average firm has no...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466129
Kaplan and Zingales [1997] provide both theoretical arguments and empirical evidence that investment-cash flow sensitivities are not good indicators of financing constraints. Fazzari, Hubbard and Petersen [1999] criticize those findings. In this note, we explain how the Fazzari et al. [1999]...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471108