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France, Italy and Germany corroborates this finding, and we estimate cumulative gains of up to 5 percentage points in … the provincial mandate announcements). We also find large vaccination gains in France (3 to 5 mln first doses), Italy … (around 6 mln) and Germany (around 3.5 mln) 11 to 16 weeks after the proof of vaccination mandate announcements …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012794591
This paper exploits a data rich environment to provide direct econometric estimates of time-varying macroeconomic uncertainty, defined as the common volatility in the unforecastable component of a large number of economic indicators. Our estimates display significant independent variations from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459206
In recent years, there has been renewed interest in the moments of the yield curve (or alternatively, the term spread) as a predictor of future economic activity, defined as either recessions, or industrial production growth. In this paper, we re-examine the evidence for this predictor for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014468283
Many households hold little wealth, especially liquid wealth. In precautionary savings models, absent preference heterogeneity, these households should display not only higher marginal propensities to consume (MPCs), but also lower average propensities to consume (APCs) and higher future...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479167
Using original data from two waves of a survey conducted in March and April 2020 in eight OECD countries (N = 21,649), we show that women are more likely to see COVID-19 as a very serious health problem, to agree with restraining public policy measures adopted in response to it, and to comply...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481554
This note lays out the basic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemiological model of contagion, with a target audience of economists who want a framework for understanding the effects of social distancing and containment policies on the evolution of contagion and interactions with the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482082
Financial crises cause economic, social and political havoc. Macroprudential policies are gaining traction but are still severely under-researched compared to monetary policy and fiscal policy. We use the general framework of sequential predictions also called online machine learning to forecast...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482520
We estimate the degree of 'stickiness' in aggregate consumption growth (sometimes interpreted as reflecting consumption habits) for thirteen advanced economies. We find that, after controlling for measurement error, consumption growth has a high degree of autocorrelation, with a stickiness...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464771
This paper compares the role innovation plays in productivity across the four European countries France, Germany, Spain …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465938
US, France, Germany and the UK. These measures of managerial practice are strongly associated with firm …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466452