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Several recent twin' currency and banking crises were preceded by lending booms during which the banking system financed rapid growth of the nontradable (N) sector by borrowing in foreign currency. They were followed by recessions during which a sharp decline in credit especially hurt the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470672
The U.S. consumption growth beta of an investment strategy that goes long in high interest rate currencies and short in low interest rate currencies is large and significant. The price of consumption risk is significantly different from zero, even after accounting for the sampling uncertainty...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464835
Aggregate consumption growth risk explains why low interest rate currencies do not appreciate as much as the interest rate differential and why high interest rate currencies do not depreciate as much as the interest rate differential. We sort foreign T-bills into portfolios based on the nominal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467581
The well-known uncovered interest parity puzzle arises from the empirical regularity that, among developed country pairs, the high interest rate country tends to have high expected returns on its short term assets. At the same time, another strand of the literature has documented that high real...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457626
Separate literatures study violations of uncovered interest parity using regression-based and portfolio-based methods. We propose a decomposition of these violations into a cross-currency, a between-time-and-currency, and a cross-time component that allows us to analytically relate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458373
We review the literature on multi-horizon currency risk premiums. We show how the multi-horizon implications arise from the classic present-value relationship. We further show how these implications manifest themselves in the interaction between bond and currency risk premiums. This link is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322805
comprehensive estimate of foreign investors' U.S. dollar (USD) security holdings and currency hedging practices. We document four … raised their USD hedge ratio by an average of 15 percentage points, despite higher hedging costs implied by large and … persistent deviations from covered interest-rate parity. The total FX hedging demand from these sector reached $2 trillion in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544731
-financial-crisis regulatory environment. Global banks mainly use such funding to finance liquid, near risk-free arbitrage positions--in particular …, the interest on excess reserves arbitrage and the covered interest rate parity arbitrage. In this environment, we examine … global banks to the reform was a cutback in arbitrage positions that relied on unsecured funding, rather than a reduction in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012510537
Recent theories of exchange rate determination have emphasized limited UIP arbitrage by international financial … institutions. New regulations since 2008 have also lead to imperfect CIP arbitrage. We show that under limited CIP arbitrage the … operate through the swap market, which have no effect under perfect CIP arbitrage. More familiar financial shocks that impact …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015056203
We study the properties of the carry trade, a currency speculation strategy in which an investor borrows low-interest-rate currencies and lends high-interest-rate currencies. This strategy generates payoffs which are on average large and uncorrelated with traditional risk factors. We argue that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464592