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We study how changes in trade barriers contributed to the dynamics of the US trade balance and real exchange rate since 1980 - a period when trade tripled. Using two dynamic trade models, we decompose fluctuations in the trade balance into terms related to trade integration (global and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479517
The large trade and current account deficits of the United States cannot continue indefinitely because doing so would constitute a permanent gift to the U.S. economy. The process that will cause this gift to shrink and that will eventually cause it to reverse is a fall in the dollar. The dollar...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464697
This paper has two aims. The first is to reduce the range within which the true U.S.-China bilateral trade deficit lies … revised US-China bilateral trade deficit is $15 billion to $20 billion in 1994, and $16 billion to $22 billion in 1995 … US-CHINA bilateral trade deficit in recent years reflected many factors. In our opinion, the two chief factors are (i …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472213
Given the rapidly growing reserves in Asia (China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan) and the pressures from trading partners to …, and that changes in trade flows can be substantial. Different treatments of China's processing trade have small impact on … changes in China's trade flow under RMB appreciation, but significant impacts on the change in the surplus. Results are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465061
This paper presents numerical simulation results that suggest that China can both reduce its trade imbalance and … switching is thus a possibility for China to receive a double benefit, rebalancing trade with a welfare gain. This has … countries with a trade surplus, such as China, an origin basis offers a lower tax rate on an equal yield basis and reduced …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461971
In this paper we have constructed a theoretical model in which Asian firms maximize their profit, competing with Japanese and US firms in their markets. The duopoly model is used to determine export prices and volumes in response to the exchange rate fluctuations vis-…-vis the Japanese yen and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471508
The sharp gyrations of the dollar and of the trade deficit in the 1980s were among the most novel and least understood economic developments of the decade. This paper, which was written as part of the NBER project on American economic policy in the 1980s, examines the reasons for the dollar's...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474634
We provide a theoretical interpretation of two features of international data: the countercyclical movements in net exports and the tendency for the trade balance to be negatively correlated with current and future movements in the terms of trade, but positively correlated with past movements....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474721
The paper examines welfare effects and the trade balance response to changes in the world oil prices and interest rates for a small oil-importing economy. The trade balance is mainly seen as the difference between saving and investment, and these are derived from intertemporal optimization. It...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478114
We study the consequences of protectionism for macroeconomic fluctuations. First, using high-frequency trade policy data, we present fresh evidence on the dynamic effects of temporary trade barriers. Estimates from country-level and panel VARs show that protectionism acts as a supply shock,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453361