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Over the period 1972-1986, the correlations of GDP, employment and investment between the United States and an aggregate of Europe, Canada and Japan were respectively 0.76, 0.66, and 0.63. For the period 1986 to 2000 the same correlations were much lower: 0.26, 0.03 and -0.07 (real...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469415
It has long been recognized that business cycle comovement is greater between countries that trade intensively with one another. Surprisingly, no one has previously examined the relationship between trade intensity and comovement of shocks to the trend level of output. Contrary to the result for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460627
deficit. The rest of the world experiences a long-run increase in GDP and consumption. Less monopoly power in financial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462044
Can financial integration, particularly the cross-border investments of multinational firms, help explain the synchronization of business cycles? This paper presents evidence on the comovement of returns and investment within U.S. multinational firms to address this question. These firms...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467905
We analyze the impact of financial globalization on business cycle synchronization utilizing a proprietary database on banks' international exposure for industrialized countries during 1978- 2006. Theory makes ambiguous predictions and identification has been elusive due to lack of bilateral...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012008492
This paper shows that the EMU has not affected historical characteristics of member countries' business cycles and their cross-correlations. Member countries which had similar levels of GDP per-capita in the seventies have also experienced similar business cycles since then and no significant...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464118
and consumption. Most integrated assessment models (IAMs) relate temperature to the level of real GDP and consumption, but … uncertainty over future temperature change and its impact? I address these questions by estimating the fraction of consumption …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462960
This paper develops a structural VAR model to measure how a shock to one country can affect the GDP of other countries …. It uses trade linkages to estimate the multiplier effects of a shock as it is transmitted through other countries' output …-trade matrix. For example, due to these output-multiplier effects, a shock to one country can have a large impact on countries that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470116
When an economic boom produces high output, employment, and investment in the United States, there is usually a simultaneous boom in other industrialized countries. But, why? Answering this question is a central goal of international macroeconomics. However, multi-country dynamic equilibrium...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470328
business cycles, since these govern the extent to which individuals can smooth consumption in the presence of country …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473924